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April 01, 2006

loss of life

dulles airport is one of the ten busiest airports in the united states. last year slightly less that thirty million passengers went through there.

let's figure that half of them were arriving and half were leaving. so that's fifteen million.

fifteen million is a little more than 40,000 a day... almost 2,000 an hour. there are quite a few security gates, but let's assume a security gate can handle two people a minute, you'd need about 15 gates functioning at that rate to handle the passengers. now each gate is manned by three or four guards, and for argument's sake lets say there's one manager for every six guards, so that's sixty people full-time, round the clock. the real number is probably more, definitely not less. and it doesn't include the cops and tow truck drivers and people monitoring the closed circuit cameras, or the special guards who "interview" selected passengers, but never mind them...

60 people x 24 hours x 365 days = 525,600 hours spent screening.

the security check adds an average of what, twenty minutes to boarding? it's probably more, but let's call it twenty.

15,000,000 x 1/3 hour = 5,000,000 hours being screened.

5,000,000 + 525,600 = 5,525,600 hours per year spent by passengers and screeners. at dulles.

let's say an average american's life expectancy is eighty years. maybe it's more, maybe less, but we'll call it eighty.

80 years x 365 days x 24 hours = 700,800 hours life expectancy

5,525,600 hours spent รท 700,800 = 7.88 entire lifetimes spent screening at dulles every year.

say the total air traffic of all the airports is thirty times that of dulles... it's probably significantly more, but call it thirty, then this security consumes about 200 lives a year. a 757 has 182 seats.

of course some of the assumptions above could be off by an order of magnitude or more, on the low side.

we prefer loss of life that's spread thin like mayonaisse, rather than in bite-size chunks.

posted by matthew at 07:09 PM




so the question is, how many 757's would you lose every year if you didn't have the security?

Let's say it takes 5 people to plan and execute a plane jacking if there was no security. The number is probably less, but lets say 5.

That's 40 planes right there in the first year.

So 40 x 182 people per plane = 7280 people. And that doesn't count the people on the ground.

Recent hystory would suggest a plane can take out 1200 or so people on the ground. Let's call it 1000. So that's 40,000.

40,000 + 7,280 = 47,280 lives lost in the first year.

That's a lot of mayonnaise.

Oh yeah, why 40 planes in the first year? That's just the 200 sacked security staff taking it out on the airlines. How many others there would be is per speculation.

Of course some of the assumptions above could be off by an order of magnitude or more, on the low side.

posted by: Derek on April 2, 2006 03:52 AM


A little busy at the airport yesterday? Yeah, I can second that!

posted by: oxford fellow on April 2, 2006 11:19 AM


They that give up essential liberty to obtain temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

posted by: Benjamin Franklin on April 2, 2006 02:40 PM


Did you include taking off the shoes? Or is that just at National? Probably could add another year on for that.

Derek, don't bring me down. Have you looked at the security staff? They'd be lucky to just have the motivation to yell at their television about losing their jobs, let alone actually do something about it.

posted by: J. on April 13, 2006 07:54 AM